Oklahoma (42-23) vs. South Carolina (43-17), Carolina Stadium, Columbia
WEEKEND ROTATION
Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPNU
Oklahoma - Jordan John, LHP, So. (8-7, 2.26 ERA)
South Carolina - Michael Roth, LHP, Sr. (6-1, 2.68 ERA)
Sunday, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Oklahoma - Jonathan Gray, RHP, So. (8-4, 3.32 ERA)
South Carolina - Colby Holmes, RHP, Jr. (7-1, 3.00 ERA)
Monday. 7 p.m., ESPN2 (if necessary)
Oklahoma - Dillon Overton, LHP, So. (6-3, 3.16 ERA
South Carolina - Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Fr. (5-1, 4.05)
- - -
South Carolina stands two victories away from returning to Omaha to bid for a third consecutive national championship. If you'd have told USC coach Ray Tanner before the season he'd be in this position after having to replace six everyday players, he likely would have taken the result sight unseen.
He's been able to fold five newcomers into the lineup, then juggle several players in the designated hitter role.
Here's my breakdown of the teams.
STARTING PITCHING
Oklahoma - The Sooners have some impressive strikeout numbers. Each of the three scheduled weekend starters has 96 or more strikeouts. USC's staff leader is reliever Matt Price with 78. Game 1 starter Jordan John (104 Ks, 119 2/3 IP, 1 homer allowed) has made 15 relief appearances in addition to 11 starts, so his weekend may not be done after Saturday. He has four complete games and four saves. Game 2 starter Jonathan Gray (96 Ks, 97.2 IP, 3 HRA) has been a starter only. If a Game 3 is needed, Dillon Overton (120 Ks, 116 2/3 IP, 6 HRA)) is to get the call.
South Carolina - The Gamecocks' numbers aren't as gaudy as the Sooners'; they just win. Barring a possible spot outing in a crucial situation in Game 2 or 3, Michael Roth (76 Ks in 107 1/3 IP, 5 HRA) will make his final Carolina Stadium appearance Saturday. With the exception of his outing in the Southeastern Conference Tournament, Roth has struggled with his control in recent outings. Game 2 starter Colby Holmes (58 Ks, 69 IP, 7 HRA) was brilliant in his Regional start against Manhattan. Freshman Jordan Montgomery (51 Ks, 66 2/3 IP, 4 HRA) has been in and out of the USC rotation but has met the challenge overall. He didn't show nerves in pitching the regional finale against Clemson last weekend. If it comes to a third game, Montgomery's youth shouldn't be an issue.
Edge - Oklahoma may have a razor-thin advantage in raw numbers, but I believe the home field draws this matchup to Even.
BULLPEN
Oklahoma - Statistics indicate Sooners coach Sunny Golloway is much like USC's Tanner; as the season progresses he narrows the number of pitchers he uses in key situations. Only five Sooners have at least 10 relief appearances - and one of that five is Friday starter John. Oklahoma starters generally have gone deeper into games, causing less work for the bullpen. Steven Okert leads the staff with 24 relief appearances. He also has a team-leading five saves.
South Carolina - Tyler Webb has developed from a situational left-hander into an innings-eater as needed for the Gamecocks. Freshman Evan Beal has been solid other than some control problems. The short series also gives Tanner the option of Nolan Belcher, Forrest Koumas and Adam Westmoreland, all accustomed to pitching in the pressure of SEC games. Senior Logan Munson has gotten the call more often recently. Still, Price is the heart of the USC bullpen and Tanner hasn't been afraid to bring the junior fireballer in for a multi-inning save. If the game situation allows it, Tanner would love to be able to limit Price's work so that he can be available for two games this weekend, if needed.
Edge - South Carolina.
OFFENSE
Oklahoma - The Sooners are built for speed. They have 20 triples and are 76-for-115 in stolen bases. Oklahoma has 72 sacrifice bunts. Oklahoma hit .215 as a team during the Charlottesville Regional. Other than Matt Oberste (.467) and Caleb Bushyhead (.389), the Sooners hit .160 as a team. Projected catcher Tanner Toal is hitting .193 for the season; third baseman Garrett Carey is batting .214. It looks like the Sooners don't mind being pitched inside - they've been hit by 84 pitches.
South Carolina - The Gamecocks haven't put up the offensive numbers like they have in the past two season, but they've gotten production throughout the lineup. Joey Pankake has become a good table-settle in the leadoff spot. Evan Marzilli has had a problem with strikeouts, but handles the bat well when he makes contact. Christian Walker, with 11 homers, is the most-feared member of the lineup. If freshman Grayson Greiner is able to hit - he missed the regional with a knee injury - look for him to get the start as designated hitter against left-handers. If he can't go, Tanner has several options he's used before.
Edge - South Carolina.
BASERUNNING
Oklahoma - As mentioned above, the Sooners have stolen 76 bases. So far this season South Carolina's pitchers and catchers have combined to largely hold opposing running games in check. Dante Rosenberg, thrust into the catcher's role by Greiner's injury last week, did an excellent job of continuing that. OU baserunners have been picked off 12 times.
South Carolina - The Gamecocks have been a little more daring on the base paths lately, but are just 37-for-59 in steals. USC, generally, does an excellent job of picking the ball up off the bat and taking the extra base when available.
Edge - Oklahoma.
DEFENSE
Oklahoma - The Sooners are fielding .968 as a team (83 errors) but have turned 56 double plays. OU has picked off 15 opposing baserunners. There's no breakdown of errors by position, but it appears the Sooners have made a few more outfield errors than USC. Oklahoma catchers have committed 10 passed balls and pitchers have thrown 45 wild pitches. The Sooners have thrown out 36 of 57 base stealers.
South Carolina - USC is fielding .980 as a team and has turned 43 doubles plays. The Gamecocks have picked off just three opposing baserunners. Opponents are 34-for-55 in stolen bases. The Gamecocks have committed 27 wild pitches and two passed balls. Pankake has developed into an excellent shortstop after an early case of the defensive yips. Rosenberg showed a knack for blocking low pitches in the regional. Gamecocks outfielders are rarely caught out of position defensively.
Edge - South Carolina.
INTANGIBLES
Oklahoma - The Sooners won four straight elimination games to take the Charlottesville Regional.
South Carolina - The Gamecocks get the emotional boost of playing on their home field in front of a noisy crowd. There are lots of new faces playing key roles, but there are enough veterans of the two College World Series champions to provide the needed leadership.
Edge - South Carolina.
MY PICK
South Carolina's streak of 19 consecutive post-season wins and 22 consecutive home wins in NCAA play comes to an end, but the Gamecocks win the series in three games.
No comments:
Post a Comment