Thursday, May 29, 2014

Gainesville regional preview

The teams
No. 1 seed Florida (40-21). 2. Long Beach State (32-24). 3. North Carolina (34-35). 4. College of Charleston (41-17).

* Florida is making its 30th appearance in the NCAA Tournament, including its seventh straight under coach Kevin O'Sullivan.

* Long Beach State is making its 20th NCAA Tournament trip, but first since 2008.

* North Carolina is making its 29th NCAA Tournament appearance.

* College of Charleston is in the tournament for the sixth time, including the second as an automatic qualifier.

Why Florida might win
* Interchangeable parts --  O'Sullivan has mixed and matched his pitching staff to find the right role. Eight pitchers have started at least four games and 12 of the 13 most-used pitchers have been both starters and relievers.

* Confidence -- A young Gators team caught fire early in the SEC schedule and charged to the East Divison title. Florida also reached the championship game of the conference tournament.

* Defense -- Florida committed 61 errors as a team, 21 of those by shortstop Richie Martin. If you hit the ball to someone, chances are they're going to make the play.

Why Florida might lose
* What am I doing here? -- The Gators have seven freshmen and five sophomores playing important roles. After a challenging schedule and good SEC Tournament run, there's no reason to suspect they'll get the jitters in the NCAA Tournament. But you never know.

Why Long Beach State win
* The little things -- The Dirtbags, as the baseball team likes to be called, play solid defense and like to bunt runners over.

* Pitching --The staff has 10 shutouts and  is walking less than three batters per game.

Why Long Beach State might lose
* He needed one more biscuit for breakfast -- The Dirtbags have six home runs as a team this season. That could make multi-run late-inning rallies hard to come by.

Why North Carolina might win
* Balance --The Tar Heels have a good balance between pitching and offense.

Why North Carolina might lose
*Defense -- The left side of the Tar Heels infield has struggled with errors. Mistakes can be costly in tight games.

Why College of Charleston might win
* On a roll -- The Cougars have won six of their last seven games and 10 of their last 12.

* Pitching -- Bailey Ober and Taylor Clark give the Cougars a solid 1-2 starting punch, and Tyler Thornton and Nathan Helvey aren't far behind. Closer Michael Hanzlik has been dependable. In between are several effective relievers

 Why College of Charleston might lose
* The competition -- I don't see glaring deficiencies in the Cougars. Sometimes, you just run into a better team.

Tidbits
* The Gators are a national seed for the fifth time in the past six seasons.
* UNC has won 49 NCAA games since 2006. South Carolina (46) is the only other team with 40 or more wins in that span.

The schedule (all games on ESPN3):
Friday
Game 1: North Carolina vs. Long Beach State, 1 p.m.
Game 2: Florida vs. College of Charleston, 7 p.m.
Saturday
Game 3: Game 1 loser vs. Game 2 loser, 1 p.m.
Game 4: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 7 p.m.
Sunday
Game 5: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 loser, 1 p.m.
Game 6; Game 5 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 7 p.m.
Monday
Game 7: Game 5 winner vs. Game 4 winner (if both teams have one loss), 7 p.m.

Palmetto State Baseball prediction: Florida prevails in what some national analysts are calling the toughest of the 16 regionals.

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